Japan’s population is shrinking : currently more deaths than births

Every year, 400 primary and secondary schools are converted into elderly day care centers.

1 out of 5 people over 100 in the world are living in Japan.

There are more elderly diapers sold than baby diapers.

Japan’s population is shrinking and the situation is more complicated than its seems.

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Japan is known for being the third-biggest economy after the United States but Japan is also sadly known for having the lowest fertility rate and the fastest aging population in the world.

The demographic crisis  that Japan is now facing is said to be unprecedented

The fertility rate, that is to say, the number of children each woman has during her lifetime, remains very low, even if the Japanese population stands at 127 million, according to forecasts, it will fall to about 83 million by 2100 (United Nations).

People are living older and older in good health (life expectancy reaches 81.7 for men, 88.5 for females). However, population decline has become one of the biggest threats.

Comparison between Japan and the world’s fertility rate

(The drop in 1966 being due to a popular superstition, women born during the Fire Horse year are said to kill their husband)

The origins of the issue

The drop in the birth rate is an issue that many politicians try to contain without great success. However, one needs to take into account the Japanese traditions and state of mind to understand that the issue seems to be even more complex.

Japan did have a postwar baby boom after the Second World War. Nonetheless, the law of 1948 legalizing abortion, just after the war, plus several decades of low fertility has led to the current situation.

Traditionally, after giving birth, Japanese women stop working. Furthermore, it is difficult to have women give their children to child care infrastructures. Japan knows a real lack of child care infrastructures. Long working hours discourage women from searching for high paying jobs.

One of Abe’s government’s policy was to encourage women to go back to work after having one child but that is taking into account only part of the problem.

The high cost of studies makes some young married couples reluctant about having children. Education in Japan being extremely costly from preschool to university, people tend to hesitate to have children.

Even for married couples the task is not easy, taking into account the increasing number of sexless couples (more than 50%), work insecurity is also increasing (40% of employees are non-regular workers) which doesn’t provide a good family environment.

Some issues are specific to Japan, such as the “Parasite Singles” concept, introduced by the sociologist Masahiro Yamada. This expression designates people in their twenties thirties which are still living with their parents, who are unmarried and most of the time unemployed. Furthermore, other words are known in the Occident such as “Otaku” that is to say, young people addicted to Japanese comics. One can also add the “Hikkikomori” syndrome which is most of the time correlated with depression and social phobia. More recent trends such as “herbivore” designates young people who believes it is a good thing not to be “dependent on romance”. All these trends remain very common and are consuming Japanese society from the inside.

Solutions are even more complex than the issue itself…

Despite many benefits of immigration such as providing innovation and entrepreneurship, the Japanese government and Japanese people don’t want to consider this option, arguing that it is the Japanese problem, and that they want to solve it by themselves. In fact, they do not want to accept foreigners because of the fear of crime, the desire to preserve their cultural tradition and a belief in the homogeneity of Japanese people. Despite its modernity, Japan remains a nationalist country.

It appears simple for everyone to rely on robotics and technology. Several robots made for elderly care already exist. Takanori Shibata’s robotic seal named Paro  helps to reduce anxiety, depression, and even the perception of pain during heavy treatments. This robot plush is known all over the world and is even used to replace some drugs.

Robot Twendy-One (during tests) and Paro (in use in a care center)

Therefore, it is not the only use of robots.

Much sophisticated robots such as Twendy-One can help the elderly to get out their bed or deliver food. However, this kind of robots remain expensive (about $215,000). People in needs of these specific cares are not able to buy these robots for now.

In Japan, robots have two advantages, they help to compensate the lack of labout force and they also help elderly people in their everyday life. But in the end, it’s just shifting the problem, not solving it.

After retirement, some people feel lonely and decided to find a job, so they feel useful to society. Still today, it is important for Japanese people to feel useful for their country. However, to reduce the burden on the pension care system, it would be preferable to change the age of retirement which is currently 65 to 70.

Population aging is one of the curses shaping the 22nd century. Japan might not be the only country to have to face this issue.

Moreover, we can expect this trend to change. Japan went through a certain number of crises and was able to recover. Many economists tend to think it’s a new beginning more than an end.

B.L.